WHO'S RUNNING AND WHO'S NOT RUNNING IN 2016? Part One

After witnessing the prolonged political and public flogging of George W. Bush and Barack Obama for the past decade, one wonders why any sane American would want to be President. But a select few actually do aspire to the office, and right now the foundations of several campaigns are being built, as each and every potential candidate denies he or she is running. Adamant denials, evasive answers to reporters’ questions, comical teases on late night talk shows – these are the signature moves of candidates who would rather lie to the electorate as long as possible, just so they don’t have to carry the weighty responsibility of labeling themselves candidates. So, who are this year’s liars? Who will don the mandatory navy suits or fashionless corporate ensembles on the debate stage lineup in 2016?  Who’s running for President in 2016? Let’s review:

MITT ROMNEY: Roundly defeated last time, and perhaps not the most gracious loser, Romney said as recently as last week that he is not running. He lost the nomination in 2008 to John McCain, and he lost the general election in 2012 to Obama. How much rejection can one guy take, huh? If you’re a guy with an ego that has been fed for decades by titles such as President and CEO of the 2002 Olympic Organizing Committee, and Governor of Massachusetts (2003-2007), rejection may be interpreted as a mere blip on the radar screen. Romney, however, is reported by Bloomberg to have attended a power-gathering of Republican party donors at the $75 million Manhattan duplex of fat cat Republican and NY Jets owner Woody Johnson. What was Romney doing there? And Bloomberg reveals he had a hush-hush tete-a-tete with billionaire Rupert Murdoch.  Hmmmm….whatever could they have been discussing?

PROS:  Political animal, knows how to walk the walk with the big boys and girls; has been through the campaign rigors more than once and proved he has the stamina; many Republicans with big money feel comfortable supporting his aspirations; looks like a matinee idol – come on, you know it’s true.

CONS: Political animal, knows how to walk the walk with the big boys and girls; has been through the campaign rigors more than once and proved he has the stamina; sore loser, who has made a number of snarky comments about Obama since his 2012 defeat; may never, ever, ever live down his infamous 47%comment.   

HILLARY CLINTON:  Speaking of billionaires, Business Insider reports that none other than Warren Buffett said recently, “Hillary is going to run. Hillary is going to win. I will bet money on it, I don't do that easily." One thing you can say for Hillary: she’s got chutzpah and she has staying power. Most interesting about her play for the 2012 nomination was that people were not really yammering about the fact that she is a woman. Up until then the big deal was whether we should or should not elect a female, but when she ran that was not the main topic anymore. Clinton is predictably coy about her intentions for 2016, but hey, it’s more than two years away. Still, in September Hillary and Bill Clinton journeyed to Iowa – yes, Iowa.  When asked if she is running, she said, “Well it is true, I am thinking about it.” Translation: “Yes, I’m running.”

PROS:  The Clinton rock star aura is alive and well; she has a global perspective now that many of her would-be opponents do not have, simply because they have not had the opportunity to interact with world leaders across the globe; already knows her way around the presidency; if you’re a Bill Clinton fan, you’d like it that he would be her co-president (come on, let’s be real here).

CONS: Hillary Clinton is without question, a polarizing figure in America. People love her or they hate her; In 2016 she will be 68 years old. Is it a good job to take on when you’re going to be in your 70s any minute?;  She made some questionable moves as Secretary of State. Benghazi looms large over her.

CHRIS CHRISTIE: It may just be that Chris Christie has good timing. Despite his multiple missteps as Governor of New Jersey, he comes across as an everyman, which has wide appeal to voters. He’s had much-publicized struggles with his weight; he’s married to a regular woman, not a glamour queen or fashion plate. During Hurricane Sandy he showed a willingness to reach across the aisle to collaborate on restoring his state; in fact he boldly and effusively praised Obama’s efforts at that time, which was a risky public move when you’re trying to gain Republican support for a presidential run. Christie publicly stated that he is considering a run, and that he would announce his intentions by the end of this year.

PROS:  Billionaire founder of Home Depot Kenneth Langone has publicly stated he thinks Christie is the man to beat in 2016,. And Langone is more than happy to help bankroll part of the effort; Since 2013 he has been chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

CONS:  Bridgegate. Enough said; by October, Christie’s approval rating in New Jersey was at its lowest level in three years, 49 percent; in September, Standard and Poor downgraded New Jersey’s credit rating, the eighth downgrade since Christie took office. That does not bode well for the potential leader of the free world at a moment when China just overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.

JEB BUSH: #Dynasty; #3sacharm?; #whatwouldGeorgesay? Are we ready for another Bush White House? The buzz was always that matriarch Barbara Bush, 89, opposed the idea of Jeb being president. But reportedly she has softened to the idea. So, that, coupled with the ever-present macho Bushboy bloodline would seem to portend another Bush candidacy.  But even though he is highly regarded in Florida, the rest of us do not exactly know where he stands on a number of other hot issues.  The thing is that we voters only know three things about him: 1) Florida seems to really like him – a lot. 2) He has some pretty moderate views on immigration; and 3) He’s big on education and has reportedly made remarkable progress in upgrading public schools in Florida.

Pros: Name recognition – internationally; national reputation as a success in his home state of Florida; he his married to a Mexican-American woman and has done very well with Hispanic voters. Reminder: Hispanics are the largest minority group in the U.S.

Cons: Jeb Bush’s wife, Columba, is known to be intensely private and one who avoids the spotlight—not a characteristic that fits well with the expectations of a contemporary first lady; the Bush name could actually work against him since it brings back murky memories of  George W.'s last term.

In Part 2, we’ll take a look at three potential candidates who could be described as…ahem…a bit more extreme in their views on certain issues, and that’s putting it mildly. Next time we’ll look at Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Hey, if nothing else, it’s going to be a colorful couple of years in the wannabe presidential arena. Stay tuned.

WEEKEND IN MANHATTAN

I love the title of this piece. It does sound like a Woody Allen flick, doesn’t it? It’s not. I spent last weekend in New York, just days after the storm that changed millions of lives on the Eastern seaboard. I stayed in midtown Manhattan, and if I hadn’t seen news reports of Hurricane Sandy, I would never have known there was a storm just days earlier.

Therein is the irony that is New York and surrounding areas right now. In Manhattan it’s life as usual, except for the blocks-long lines at gas stations. Those lines will diminish as power is restored to regional refineries, and reports are that many of them have already been re-energized. So that means that if you happen to be inland from where the storm hit, you can still shop, cocktail, dine, catch a show, pick up groceries and even catch the subway in most locations.

 Meanwhile, if you’re in Staten Island, or New Jersey, your life has effectively come to a halt. You have no home, or if you do have a home, you have no heat or electricity and no real indication when utilities will be restored. For those of us who experienced Hurricane Katrina in 2005, this is déjà vu. Slow governmental response, ineffective FEMA assistance, lack of supplies, ill-equipped shelters, ongoing threats from weather and elements, widespread fire damage, waterlogged furnishings and belongings, shuttered businesses, humiliating living conditions and frustration to the extreme. One woman interviewed on a NYC newscast described her hard hit neighborhood as “Beirut.” A New Jersey man said, “Where’s FEMA? Where’s Obama? Where’s God?” Watch this CNN report from late last week:
While those in outlying areas maneuvered through the sludge that surrounded their decimated homes, in upper Manhattan Lincoln Center was abuzz with the National Chorale’s gala opening concert, the Metropolitan Opera’s production of Turandot, and Jazz at Lincoln Center’s John Coltrane festival. Men in pricey suits and women in fake furs and sky-high Christian Louboutins raced up the avenues to meet their friends for dinner.

At the same time in Staten Island, Borough President James Molinaro is just hoping to get power restored to the former Arthur Kill Correctional Facility, a former detention facility for medium-risk prisoners. If he can do that, several hundred displaced citizens could use it as a shelter, since some of them can’t even get into their cars since their neighbors’ houses are resting on top of them.

So, let’s review: Uptown: furs, heels, fun, concerts and foie gras. Coastal areas: homelessness, depression, freezing cold, hopelessness and fear. It is astounding how polarized life can be among those who live just miles apart from one another.

Heroes emerge: Famously hot-headed New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (below, right with President Obama) has maintained a cool, controlled demeanor and worked tirelessly to reassure his constituents

that help is on the way and that they are not alone. He even risked the wrath of his own Republican party by praising President Obama on his response to the catastrophe. In New York, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has maintained a steady, authoritative voice and strong leadership. Not everyone is in his corner: tens of thousands of runners from as far away as Dubai, Japan and Russia were in the city for the annual NYC marathon, when Bloomberg cancelled it at the last minute. Had he done so when the storm’s devastation became evident days earlier, many of them could have saved the time and money they spent to get to the city for the ill-fated race. The citywide anger at his tardiness was palpable.

Those of us who have been through this nature-infused horror can generally predict what

those most affected by the storm will endure in the coming months and years. Celebrities will rally and raise millions of dollars, but most of those who lost homes, cars, belongings and such will never really see any of that money. In fact, many will question where those millions went.

Legislators in Washington will make crude, insensitive comments about how impractical it is to rebuild along coastlines like the Eastern shores. They will question whether it makes any sense for people to consider living there since they are constantly going to be in harm’s way. They have already started. Here is what Rep. Steve King (R-IA)(right)

had to say just days after the storm, about governmental assistance to victims of the storm:  "I want to get them the resources that are necessary. ... But not one big shot to just open up the checkbook because they spent it on Gucci bags and massage parlors and everything you can think of in addition to what was necessary." More reasonable legislators might focus their comments and efforts more on how to immediately relieve those in need. Not Mr. King.

And there’s more: Here is what former FEMA director Michael Brown (“heck of a job Brownie” - below, left) had to say about President Obama’s rapid and immediate response to Hurricane Sandy: “"Why was this so quick? At some point, somebody's going to ask that question. ...

This is like the inverse of Benghazi." He also had this to say: "Hurricane Sandy should teach us to be prepared, willing to live without the modern conveniences of elevators, computers and refrigerators. Hurricane Sandy should teach all of us to chill." Presumably Michael Brown is indeed living with the above-mentioned “conveniences” while storm victims suffer. Since when are communication and food conveniences?

Crackpots will come out of the woodwork and gain media attention with their far-fetched, generally hateful rhetoric. Already Rabbi Noson Leiter from upstate NY publicly stated that hurricane Sandy happened because of New York’s passage of legislation that made gay marriage legal. He truly said that.

The difference between Sandy and Katrina is that Katrina affected the whole city of New Orleans. There was damage everywhere. Not so in New York. It was pretty much life as usual last weekend where I was. The problem with that is that over time it may become easier for citizens of the largest city in America to live in semi-denial about the plight of those

just a borough away. If all is well in Hell’s Kitchen and Chelsea and the meatpacking district and upper Manhattan, will it be too easy to forget about those in Staten Island, Hoboken, Atlantic City, Coney Island and Westchester County? I hope not, but I know when the headlines die down, so will much of the country’s attention. I saw that here in New Orleans. We became yesterday’s news much sooner than any of us expected.

Meanwhile, by mid week the highly anticipated nor’easter hit hard, actually knocking out power to many of those whose electricity and heat had just been restored after Sandy. Climate change scientists and others [read: Al Gore] are predictably pointing to this crisis as clear evidence of global warming, and rightfully questioning why this issue never saw the light of day during the entire Presidential campaign. The drama is just beginning. You can help. Click here to make a donation online. It takes less than one minute. Or, you can text to 90999 to automatically donate $10 to Red Cross hurricane relief, which will be added to your wireless bill. Come on. Just do it.