WHO'S RUNNING AND WHO'S NOT RUNNING IN 2016? Part One

After witnessing the prolonged political and public flogging of George W. Bush and Barack Obama for the past decade, one wonders why any sane American would want to be President. But a select few actually do aspire to the office, and right now the foundations of several campaigns are being built, as each and every potential candidate denies he or she is running. Adamant denials, evasive answers to reporters’ questions, comical teases on late night talk shows – these are the signature moves of candidates who would rather lie to the electorate as long as possible, just so they don’t have to carry the weighty responsibility of labeling themselves candidates. So, who are this year’s liars? Who will don the mandatory navy suits or fashionless corporate ensembles on the debate stage lineup in 2016?  Who’s running for President in 2016? Let’s review:

MITT ROMNEY: Roundly defeated last time, and perhaps not the most gracious loser, Romney said as recently as last week that he is not running. He lost the nomination in 2008 to John McCain, and he lost the general election in 2012 to Obama. How much rejection can one guy take, huh? If you’re a guy with an ego that has been fed for decades by titles such as President and CEO of the 2002 Olympic Organizing Committee, and Governor of Massachusetts (2003-2007), rejection may be interpreted as a mere blip on the radar screen. Romney, however, is reported by Bloomberg to have attended a power-gathering of Republican party donors at the $75 million Manhattan duplex of fat cat Republican and NY Jets owner Woody Johnson. What was Romney doing there? And Bloomberg reveals he had a hush-hush tete-a-tete with billionaire Rupert Murdoch.  Hmmmm….whatever could they have been discussing?

PROS:  Political animal, knows how to walk the walk with the big boys and girls; has been through the campaign rigors more than once and proved he has the stamina; many Republicans with big money feel comfortable supporting his aspirations; looks like a matinee idol – come on, you know it’s true.

CONS: Political animal, knows how to walk the walk with the big boys and girls; has been through the campaign rigors more than once and proved he has the stamina; sore loser, who has made a number of snarky comments about Obama since his 2012 defeat; may never, ever, ever live down his infamous 47%comment.   

HILLARY CLINTON:  Speaking of billionaires, Business Insider reports that none other than Warren Buffett said recently, “Hillary is going to run. Hillary is going to win. I will bet money on it, I don't do that easily." One thing you can say for Hillary: she’s got chutzpah and she has staying power. Most interesting about her play for the 2012 nomination was that people were not really yammering about the fact that she is a woman. Up until then the big deal was whether we should or should not elect a female, but when she ran that was not the main topic anymore. Clinton is predictably coy about her intentions for 2016, but hey, it’s more than two years away. Still, in September Hillary and Bill Clinton journeyed to Iowa – yes, Iowa.  When asked if she is running, she said, “Well it is true, I am thinking about it.” Translation: “Yes, I’m running.”

PROS:  The Clinton rock star aura is alive and well; she has a global perspective now that many of her would-be opponents do not have, simply because they have not had the opportunity to interact with world leaders across the globe; already knows her way around the presidency; if you’re a Bill Clinton fan, you’d like it that he would be her co-president (come on, let’s be real here).

CONS: Hillary Clinton is without question, a polarizing figure in America. People love her or they hate her; In 2016 she will be 68 years old. Is it a good job to take on when you’re going to be in your 70s any minute?;  She made some questionable moves as Secretary of State. Benghazi looms large over her.

CHRIS CHRISTIE: It may just be that Chris Christie has good timing. Despite his multiple missteps as Governor of New Jersey, he comes across as an everyman, which has wide appeal to voters. He’s had much-publicized struggles with his weight; he’s married to a regular woman, not a glamour queen or fashion plate. During Hurricane Sandy he showed a willingness to reach across the aisle to collaborate on restoring his state; in fact he boldly and effusively praised Obama’s efforts at that time, which was a risky public move when you’re trying to gain Republican support for a presidential run. Christie publicly stated that he is considering a run, and that he would announce his intentions by the end of this year.

PROS:  Billionaire founder of Home Depot Kenneth Langone has publicly stated he thinks Christie is the man to beat in 2016,. And Langone is more than happy to help bankroll part of the effort; Since 2013 he has been chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

CONS:  Bridgegate. Enough said; by October, Christie’s approval rating in New Jersey was at its lowest level in three years, 49 percent; in September, Standard and Poor downgraded New Jersey’s credit rating, the eighth downgrade since Christie took office. That does not bode well for the potential leader of the free world at a moment when China just overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.

JEB BUSH: #Dynasty; #3sacharm?; #whatwouldGeorgesay? Are we ready for another Bush White House? The buzz was always that matriarch Barbara Bush, 89, opposed the idea of Jeb being president. But reportedly she has softened to the idea. So, that, coupled with the ever-present macho Bushboy bloodline would seem to portend another Bush candidacy.  But even though he is highly regarded in Florida, the rest of us do not exactly know where he stands on a number of other hot issues.  The thing is that we voters only know three things about him: 1) Florida seems to really like him – a lot. 2) He has some pretty moderate views on immigration; and 3) He’s big on education and has reportedly made remarkable progress in upgrading public schools in Florida.

Pros: Name recognition – internationally; national reputation as a success in his home state of Florida; he his married to a Mexican-American woman and has done very well with Hispanic voters. Reminder: Hispanics are the largest minority group in the U.S.

Cons: Jeb Bush’s wife, Columba, is known to be intensely private and one who avoids the spotlight—not a characteristic that fits well with the expectations of a contemporary first lady; the Bush name could actually work against him since it brings back murky memories of  George W.'s last term.

In Part 2, we’ll take a look at three potential candidates who could be described as…ahem…a bit more extreme in their views on certain issues, and that’s putting it mildly. Next time we’ll look at Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Hey, if nothing else, it’s going to be a colorful couple of years in the wannabe presidential arena. Stay tuned.

TRENDING NOW: THIS WEEK'S BIG 5

TRENDING NOW is a new Greenberg Rants feature that links you to the best online reporting of five of this week’s biggest news stories. Here we go:  

THE JOHN EDWARDS TRIAL: The best daily reporting of the Edwards trial is found on Daily Beast, where reporter Diane Dimond is in the courtroom listening to testimony every day. Dimond’s reporting offers readers a true “you are there” perspective. It was Dimond who reported that the late Elizabeth Edwards publicly confronted her husband in an airport over his affair with Rielle Hunter, and experienced a breakdown in the presence of campaign employees. Her daily reports are thorough and concise.
  
SANTORUM’S WEAK ENDORSEMENT OF MITT ROMNEY: Former GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum oddly sent out a late night email on May 7 endorsing the presumptive Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Let’s remember Santorum is the guy who publicly stated that Mitt Romney was the "worst Republican in the country for the GOP to put up against President Obama in November." In his endorsement, which you can read in full at Politico you will notice Santorum reiterates that he and Romney have real differences of opinion, but he is still harping on social issues rather than the nuts and bolts issues Americans care about, Santorum says, “We certainly agree that abortion is wrong and marriage should be between one man and one woman.”

VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN CAME OUT IN SUPPORT OF GAY MARRIAGE THIS WEEK: “I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual men and women marrying one another are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties,” said the vice-president. The New York Times did a nice job covering Biden’s rather blatant departure from the Obama administration’s stated opinion on the issue. The White House was quick to downplay Biden’s outspoken support, reiterating that Obama’s thinking on this issue is “still evolving.”  

CAN SUPERHEROES SAVE THE FILM INDUSTRY? “The Avengers,” one of the most highly anticipated feature films in recent history, broke all box office records this week with a $200 million first week opening, the highest in box office history. How Disney and Marvel pulled this off, and how they prevented it from leaking online to any great extent is the subject of a good story at The Hollywood Reporter.

 SECOND MASSEUR FILES SEXUAL BATTERY SUIT AGAINST JOHN TRAVOLTA: It was big news on May 7 that actor John Travolta had been sued for sexually assault a male masseur. Travolta’s attorney, Marty Singer announced Travolta

vehemently denies the accusations. However, by the next day, a second masseur, in a different city filed a similar suit. Each suit asks for damages in the amount of $2 million. Radar Online is so far doing the lead reporting on this story, complete with a copy of the formal complaint.

LOOSE LIPS THAT COULD SINK THE GOP SHIP

Smart citizens aren’t getting too excited one way or the other that a Rick Santorum could triumph in three state primaries on the same night. After all, it’s way early to be getting excited about anybody and the current crop of GOP hopefuls are generally their own worst enemies. After thanking God, family, sky, air, water, or whatever after winning a primary, it seems the following days are full of each of them repeatedly sticking foot in mouth.

Is it just me, or has the GOP primary season run off the rails? Come on. When a candidate looks at the crowd and says there is a link between having an abortion and developing cancer, we know things have gone out of control. Rick Santorum said this after the Komen/Planned Parenthood funding debacle last week. Immediately medical experts came forward to say they knew of no relationship between cancer and abortion. Yet, Santorum clearly felt comfortable saying it.

He’s not the only one whose words are more fantasy than policy, plan or clear intention. Let’s not even go near former hopefuls Herman Cain, Michelle Bachman or Rick Perry. Let’s look at the words of the remaining contenders. Just last week, Mitt Romney (left) said, “I’m not concerned about the very poor that have a safety net, but if it has holes in it, I’ll repair them.” That same week statistics came out that show that my city, New Orleans, has the second highest rate of homelessness in the nation. So I’m wondering, what safety net was he talking about?
It gets worse: Terminally grumpy Newt Gingrich was promoted by a super pac robo-call that said, “Holocaust survivors for the first time were forced to eat non-kosher because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for your grandparents to eat kosher.” This, of course, was not exactly accurate, but more than that, it is clear evidence of the Gingrich campaign desperately scraping the bottom of the rhetorical barrel for ammunition against the current front runner. He justified the claim by saying Romney has a “lack of concern for religious liberty.” Gingrich denied any knowledge of the robo-call, but he did not dispute what it said.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul(below, right) tells a woman with breast cancer at one of his campaign stops that insurance companies should not have to cover pre-existing conditions. “It’s sort of like me living on the Gulf Coast, not buying insurance until I see the hurricane,” he said. “Insurance is supposed to measure risk.” Paul is the same guy who said this in a recent debate: "I miss the closet. Homosexuals, not to speak of the rest of society, were far better off when social pressure forced them to hide their activities. They could also not be as promiscuous.”

Speaking of gay people, Rick Santorum seems to speak of almost nothing else. Last month he went so far as to say it would be better for a child to have a father in prison than to be raised by lesbian parents. Santorum has made his objection to marriage equality a signature issue in the campaign, while crowds at every campaign stop largely couldn’t care less about who marries who. Yet, he hammers on. Predictably, crowds have taken to challenging Santorum on his views regarding gay Americans. What he has accomplished is simply the engineering of a campaign that is known for its extremism on a subject that Americans find tedious. By the middle of 2011, the Pew Research Institute reported that Americans were almost evenly split on the issue of marriage equality. Pew found that 57 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents favored marriage equality, while just one in four Republicans approved.

Santorum is not exactly preaching to the choir. Yet he keeps preaching. Interestingly enough, on the same day Santorum enjoyed the afterglow of his three primary wins, a California appeals court reversed its ruling on Proposition 8, essentially lifting the ban on gay marriage. What this shows is that not only is Santorum out of step with the American public, but he’s beating a dead horse.

Here’s the problem: First, candidates are judged largely by their words and their demeanor. Everything they say on the campaign trail is duly logged for history. Santorum, for example, will almost certainly see marriage equality nationwide during his lifetime, and during his political career. A decade from now the incendiary words he puts forth today will haunt him as pundits hold him to things he said in 2012. As for Gingrich,(left) although this campaign is likely his last hurrah, a man as narcissistic as he surely values his legacy. But what kind of legacy can there really be when he campaigned by calling his opponent (Romney) “despicable,” and when he championed colonizing the moon when right here on earth people were losing their homes and livelihoods in record numbers?

One of my favorite writers, Maya Angelou, says words are actual things. They exist. I always thought of words as simply symbols, but she says they’re real. So, if she’s right, how do any of these men hope to gain the universal respect of the American people when they appear to have no filter when it comes to their own message? And how do they believe Americans will perceive their characters when they do not even deal graciously with one another? Gingrich, for his part, did not even offer the traditional congratulations to Romney, the victor in two recent primaries.

Words count. Manners count. Truth matters. Reasonable discourse attracts citizen support. The old “think before you speak” rule demonstrates intelligence. Why do the GOP candidates this year not get this? Why do they underestimate the citizenry’s collective perceptive nature? If you want to win our support, guys, talk to and with us, and not over and against one another. It’s that simple. Really.